University of Chicago law professor Tom Ginsburg thought the hearings Wednesday proceeded about as expected. “I sometimes say (the impeachment inquiry) is like a TV show where we already know how the next few episodes will play out, even though we don’t know how it will end,” he said.
Ginsburg, who studies democracies around the world, says that if the House impeaches Trump and the Senate doesn’t remove him from office (as many expect will happen) the 2020 election could buck precedent.
“I’ve never found a case where the president was impeached and not removed and then won the next election, and that’s what we’re facing,” he said. “There’s a lot of evidence as an incumbent with a strong economy that President Trump has a good chance of reelection. That would be uncharted territory for presidential democracies, and possibly worrying.”
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