Jonathan Masur and Eric Posner Perform a Cost-Benefit Analysis of Lifting Social-Distancing Requirements

Cost-Benefit Analysis Supports Continuing the National Shutdown

Remarkably, just as the coronavirus pandemic appears to have reached its peak in New York, government officials have begun to plan for the lifting of social-distancing requirements. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noted on April 8 that, “if in fact we are successful, it makes sense to at least plan what a re-entry into normality would look like.”

Two days later, President Donald J. Trump announced that he would create an advisory group to recommend measures for reopening the economy. Peter Navarro, President Trump’s trade advisor, warned that continued economic disruption could kill more people than the virus.

Around the world, governments are relaxing strict social distancing requirements. China has already begun lifting restrictions in Wuhan. Italy, the Czech Republic, and other European countries are making plans to ease restrictions as well. And now the President of the United States has released his own Administration’s guidance on reopening the economy.

But no one in the Trump Administration has explained how officials balance the public health benefits of the restrictions against the costs of economic disruption. Asked on April 10 what metrics he would use in making a decision to lift social distancing, President Trump pointed at his forehead and said, “The metrics right here, that’s my metrics.”

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