Daniel Hemel on the Likely Outcomes of the Tax Bill Reconciliation

Tax Bill Reconciliation: What Are the Likely Outcomes?

According to Daniel Hemel, professor of law at the University of Chicago, the Senate will have the upper hand in the bill negotiation process. The reconciliation, which is a special process for budget bills, is subject to some Senate-specific rules. One of those is the “Byrd Rule,” which requires all provisions in the bill to be funded by revenues, and they cannot increase the deficit beyond the 10-year budget window. That amendment to the Congressional Budget Act was passed in 1990 and named for Democratic senator Robert Byrd.

Hemel noted that the House tax plan didn’t comply with the Byrd Rule, and so it wouldn’t have been able to pass the Senate in its current form. “So I look to see more of the Senate provisions rather than the House provisions make it through now,” he said.

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Tax policy