Daniel Hemel: "The Individual Income Tax Hike Act of 2028"

The Individual Income Tax Hike Act of 2028

Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch said today that his committee still has “some work to do” in order to bring its tax plan into compliance with the Byrd rule, but that he and his fellow Republicans “have every intention” of making the plan’s business tax cuts permanent.

Well, there’s really only one way to achieve revenue neutrality while cutting taxes on businesses beyond 2027. And that’s by imposing higher taxes on individuals starting in 2028.

The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the business provisions in the Senate plan will lose $89.5 billion in revenue in 2027. And that’s not including the $34.0 billion cost of the plan’s international tax reforms. Assuming that the numbers for 2028 and beyond will look like those for 2027 (and in all likelihood, they’ll look worse), this means that Senate Republicans will need to find at least $123.5 billion of pay-fors to comply with the Byrd rule requirement that reconciliation bills can’t add to the deficit beyond the budget window (which here is 10 years).

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Tax policy