"The Two Chinas and the Problem of Global Warming"

TALK AND DISCUSSION WITH
DANIEL ABEBE & JONATHAN MASUR
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 14, 2009
12:15 P.M. – CLASSROOM II

Can China be convinced to join an international climate change agreement? Existing studies that purport to answer this question incorrectly treat China as a unitary nation, leading to inaccurate projections about the behavior of the Chinese State and even China's future carbon emissions. Contrary to widespread belief, the Chinese Communist Party governs a remarkably weak central government; the real political power in China is vested in the provinces. Nor are these provinces remotely homogeneous. There are in fact "Two Chinas": a prosperous, industrialized Eastern China and a developing Western China. The divergent incentives of these two regions, the central government's weak capacity for governance, and the necessity of economic growth for social stability make the prospects for a climate accord slim. Our outlook is bleak: China may have little ability to limit its carbon emissions and little interest in doing so.

THE LECTURE IS FREE AND OPEN TO THE PUBLIC. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT LISA ALVAREZ AT LALVAREZ@UCHICAGO.EDU.
FOR SPECIAL ASSISTANCE OR NEEDS, PLEASE
CONTACT LUCIENNE GOODMAN AT (773)702-0877.