As we contemplate the nomination of a Supreme Court justice to succeed Justice Antonin Scalia, who died Saturday at age 79, some understanding of the confirmation process might be useful. In the last 60 years, 89% of all Supreme Court nominees (24 of 27) who made it to a Senate vote have been confirmed. When the Senate is controlled by the president’s party, 100% of nominees have been confirmed. When, as now, the Senate is controlled by the opposition party, 80% of nominees (12 of 15) have been confirmed.

A review of every Supreme Court nomination since 1955 reveals that, even when the Senate is in the hands of the opposition party, nominees have been easily confirmed if they are (1) perceived to be very highly qualified; (2) they are perceived to be moderate in their views; or (3) their confirmation is seen as unlikely to have a significant impact on the ideological balance on the court.

In other words, every nominee in the past 60 years who has at least one of those three characteristics has been easily confirmed, even when the Senate was controlled by the opposition party. The most divisive confirmation battles since 1955, which involved Clement Haynsworth, Harrold Carswell, Robert Bork and Clarence Thomas, all involved nominees who were seen as lacking all three of these characteristics.

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