The Cancún climate negotiations to replace the expiring UN's Kyoto Protocol suggest that there must a real sense of urgency around the issue of climate change, considering the bruising that took place last year in Copenhagen. For those who are most concerned about climate change, another failure maybe the best possible outcome in Cancún.

It is also the most likely one. Little interim progress has been made since Copenhagen on any issue. Deep differences remain among the negotiating parties in Cancún, and ambitions have been set very low by many observers including the new chairwoman of the UN's governing body for the talks. Most participants are desperate to achieve progress of any kind -- or risk process obsolescence of the entire framework.

The current guiding principle in advancing these negotiations is based on incrementalism -- the notion of concluding even a modest treaty that would allow for more serious commitments over time. This approach is seen to have worked in other international treaty contexts, including the Montreal protocol protecting the ozone layer. The logic goes "start small, don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good, and anything's better than nothing."

Kyoto was also forged under this mentality and may itself offer the best evidence against incrementalism. Developing countries, particularly China, India, and Russia, which are all in the top five emitters worldwide, are as reticent to sign on to a new treaty today as they were to assume any binding commitments under the Kyoto protocol. In the US, support for joining a global climate deal is as low as it has ever been. If incrementalism is happening under Kyoto, it is at an undetectable pace.

Yet, here we go again.

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