Geof Stone on Romney and Roe

Romney and Roe
Geoffrey R. Stone
The Huffington Post
October 27, 2012

We are coming up in January on the 40th anniversary of the Supreme Court's decision in Roe v. Wade. What are the chances that the Supreme Court will overrule Roe if Mitt Romney is elected president?

A reasonable guess at present, based on past performance, is that five of the current justices (Breyer, Ginsburg, Kagan, Kennedy and Sotomayor) would vote to reaffirm Roe, and four of the current justices (Roberts, Alito, Scalia, and Thomas) would vote to overrule Roe.

Thus, for Roe to be overruled, Romney, if elected, would have to have the opportunity to replace at least one of the five justices who support Roe. Based on the life expectancies of those five justices and on past experience, there is at least a 50 percent chance that at least one of those five justices will leave the Court in the next four years.

Faculty: 
Geoffrey R. Stone